January 5, 2006
Bring on the New Year!
I can’t help it, everybody else is making New Year’s resolutions or crazy predictions of the end of world. So, I’m dying to write down my predictions for the future of the same-sex marriage legalization in the U.S.
- By the end of 2006, at least 50% of Americans will believe that same-sex marriage should be legally valid.
On the first of May of 2005, 39% Americans believed that marriages between homosexuals should be considered legally valid (Pew Research Poll). That’s a 12 point increase from 1996. But it’s worth noting that the years between 2003 and 2005 have seen very rocky times. It’s no coincidence this is also the time when the Federal Marriage Amendment was being debated and Massachusettes broke national headlines with the news of legal same-sex marriage in the state. Gay activists have been calling this period a backlash against the recent advances in gay and lesbian equality. And they predict it will eventually die down and the inevitably progress towards full equality will continue.Could we really make an 11 point increase in one year after only a 12 point increase in 10 years? Is 50% support being overly optimistic? Ok, I’ll admit that I’m aiming for a little shock value. That 50% number is the tipping point in a society like America where the majority rules above all else. But here’s what I am keeping in mind: (1) polls are notoriously fickle and even the smallest word change can lead to significantly higher numbers (2) Spain, South Africa, Canada, and the UK all recently legalized same-sex marriage and I think this will have a big influence on the U.S. (esp. Canada and the UK). In short, I believe that 2006 will start seeing a “critical mass” effect with popular opinion on homosexuality. - The state supreme court in Washington, if not others, will rule in favor of same-sex marriage in 2006.There have been a number of court cases developing across the nation on this issue and Washington is due for a ruling any time now. The lower courts in Washington have already ruled in favor and the conditions look quite favorable. Others states have cases going through the courts like Iowa, New Jersey, New York, California, and Oregon. There is a high chance one or more of these courts will also rule in favor of gay marriage although it may not happen this year due to the long, drawn-out legal processes involved.
- Washington’s state will pass the non-discrimination bill for GLBTs.This bill failed by just one vote last year right after Microsoft withdrew its support. Although Microsoft later rescinded, it was too late: the vote had been counted. After 30 years of struggling for this bill to get past, the time has come. The supporters are planning to bring it back in the coming legislative session and, after such a close call, people are pretty confident this time. So am I. (You might have noticed by now that I come from Washington state.)
- By the end of 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court will rule the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) unconstitutional or else make a similar pro-same sex marriage ruling.I’m having too much fun with these predictions, because I am now making predictions for the decade. Again, I’m probably taking long shots on this one, but I rather be optimistic than pessimitic. I think it’s fair to say that we’re going to start looking towards the Supreme Court given what happening with the states: some are making constitutional amendments to ban same sex marriage while others are legalizing it. We just can’t avoid facing up to the debate indefinitely. The idea “for each state its own” will not last long when same sex couples from one state get a slap of discrimination in the face in another state. Moreover, the change in popular attitudes will eventually cast this issue into a case as clear as black and white much like the 1967 Supreme Court ruling legalizing interracial marriage.
Now, I have to add a disclaimer that I am not a legal scholar or a politician or even a political science major. I’m just going off of reports in the media and my own intuition. So my predictions don’t have any academic value. Yet I think my predictions have something to offer: hope. These are my “realistic” dreams of how the U.S. can become a better place. They also keep me sane when I hear all the bigoted comments from people who are still afraid of gay and lesbians.
A crazy side-question I have been thinking about now is whether I would reconsider going back to the U.S. if same-sex marriage was legalized before Dec 2010. By my previous plans, that would be right around the time I would immigrate to Canada (from my current Hong Kong home). I would kinda like to think I would give the U.S. a second chance if my partner and I were actually treated with basic respect by the U.S. government. But, honestly, there would be a lot of other factors for us to consider…like career, school, and family… So, actually I think I am going to have to stop my fortune-telling at this point. I’ll just keep my fingers crossed some of my other predictions bear out.
